In this paper, the model of partial equilibrium of the export-oriented market has been developed. The research methodology based on the development of the duopoly model made it possible to significantly expand the analytical capabilities of the export-oriented market model. The new formulation takes into account the flows of imported products to the domestic market of the exporting country, which allows analyzing a wider range of possible scenarios. Model estimates showed that in a state close to equilibrium, it ensures the fulfillment of the following specific relationships: 1) the external supplies of the exporting country are positively related to their own production volumes. For the dependence of the external supplies of the exporting country on the volume of output in the global exporter, the conditions are specified under which it has a negative or positive relationship. In general, the nature of this relationship depends on the size of the exporting country's market, and in most cases this relationship is negative; 2) the import of the exporting country in equilibrium conditions positively depends on the output of the global exporter, solutions are found in which the dependence on the output of the exporting country can be both negative and positive; 3) the price of the domestic market of the exporting country is negatively related to the output of the global exporter, while its relationship with the production of the exporting country is negative in most cases. On the basis of the obtained model, a number of scenarios are analyzed in which the impact of supply and demand shocks on the export-oriented market is considered. In order to test the model, we considered a scenario associated with a drop in global production on the example of the barley market, which basically confirmed the adequacy of the model. The theoretical significance of the study lies in substantiating the nature of the relationships that arise in the sales markets of the exporting country, in particular, depending on the size of the exporter's sales market. The practical relevance of the model lies in its great scientific potential for solving problems related to assessing the impact of supply and demand shocks on the domestic market, with the development of measures to stabilize it.

Tightening climate policies in some countries brings about a need to toughen them in others. More stringent requirements for national producers of carbon–intensive products within one country, for example, in the form of increased coverage or level of domestic carbon price, stimulates partial replacement of domestic production with foreign analogs from the countries with relatively looser greenhouse gas emissions regulation. This phenomenon is referred to as “carbon leakage”. This paper systematizes practical and theoretical approaches to combat “carbon leakage” and compares these approaches in terms of possible implications for a longterm social and economic development of Russia. The authors examine exceptions to the general rules of emissions regulation for some vulnerable industries subjected to “carbon leakage”, implementation of cross-border carbon barriers in trade, formation of climate clubs of countries and the introduction of a global minimum carbon price. Specialization in producing and exporting carbon-intensive products leaves no opportunity for Russia to stay aside of the development of the global system of greenhouse gas emissions regulation. The findings show that introducing a global minimum price for carbon seems to be the best alternative to the formation of a climate club, which may be established if other countries importing fossil fuels and carbon-intensive products join the EU carbon border adjustment policy.

Effective national cap-and-trade system involves accurate projections of greenhouse gas emissions for the national economy as a whole and by industry. The main source of carbon dioxide emissions in most countries of the world (including Russia) is the energy sector with traditional fuels (coal, gas and oil). The objective of the paper is to forecast energy emissions of carbon dioxide in the Russian Federation by applying adequate economic and mathematical modelling methods. To achieve it, two hypotheses are consistently put forward and tested: the possibility of building a medium-term forecast of the indicator as a result of correlation and regression analysis and the one based on the formation of a Bayesian ensemble of artificial neural networks. Both hypotheses are confirmed in the empirical study. However, the second method provides a higher degree of accuracy in approximating statistical data. Therefore, within the framework of this article, the formation of medium-term forecasts of energy carbon dioxide emissions in Russia is made with the help of neural network modeling. Highly accurate forecasting provides a scientific basis for effective policymakers’ decisions in decarbonisation of the national economy.

The implementation of import substitution and ensuring technological sovereignty is not an easy task for the Russian economy, which correlates with intensification of innovation activity in all spheres of national economy. One of the major factors to ensure necessary dynamics in transforming the domestic economy is the availability of free exchange of innovative technologies among subjects of various sectors in the economy provided by the conception of open innovations. Current models of innovation systems, with prevailing state financing of R&D, are not effective enough, which creates prerequisites for involving credit organizations into this area in order to intensify R&D, especially in the areas essential for practical activities. The authors propose developing and adapting the open innovation model in relation to the participation of credit institutions. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the role of credit institutions as an ecosystem actor in the open innovation model. The research methodology is based on the analysis of theoretical and practical works on open innovation theory in order to apply lending secured by the results of intellectual activity. The major results of the study are based on (i) considering the open innovation model to properly include credit institutions as an ecosystem actor, (ii) proposing possible solutions regarding the cooperation of actors in innovation processes, and (iii) selecting innovative projects for possible secured lending which will accelerate the processes of innovative development. The obtained results can be used for further development of this area and in practice of the subjects of innovation activity.

Ensuring national security is the basis for sustainable socio-economic development. This study aims to show the critical shortcomings of the current national security system and to reconfigure the mechanisms for building and regulating both individual types of security and the national security of the Russian Federation at large. The methodological basis of the study is scientific and regulatory documents on ensuring security, sustainable development. The main scientific tools of the work are: economic and systemic types of analysis, including conceptual content analysis and information modeling. The study clearly shows that ensuring national and individual types of security requires systemic consideration, taking into account the multidimensional nature of emerging relationships and its implications. National security is defined as a state of protection from internal and external threats, in which all types of security are systemically provided and the stability of its indicators is maintained. The author proposes a multidimensional discrete model of national security, characterized by the typology of protected objects, the level of consideration, the type of security provided, and the system of regulatory tools. The structuring of the selected components of the national security system has been carried out. To increase the reliability of security level assessment and better use of regulatory tools, additional parameters are proposed that affect the overall system for ensuring national security. The results obtained have a wide application for policymakers, research and educational organizations — all those involved in ensuring a particular type of security, including the development of regulatory documentation, scientific and educational publications.