Articles

Effective national cap-and-trade system involves accurate projections of greenhouse gas emissions for the national economy as a whole and by industry. The main source of carbon dioxide emissions in most countries of the world (including Russia) is the energy sector with traditional fuels (coal, gas and oil). The objective of the paper is to forecast energy emissions of carbon dioxide in the Russian Federation by applying adequate economic and mathematical modelling methods. To achieve it, two hypotheses are consistently put forward and tested: the possibility of building a medium-term forecast of the indicator as a result of correlation and regression analysis and the one based on the formation of a Bayesian ensemble of artificial neural networks. Both hypotheses are confirmed in the empirical study. However, the second method provides a higher degree of accuracy in approximating statistical data. Therefore, within the framework of this article, the formation of medium-term forecasts of energy carbon dioxide emissions in Russia is made with the help of neural network modeling. Highly accurate forecasting provides a scientific basis for effective policymakers’ decisions in decarbonisation of the national economy.

The implementation of import substitution and ensuring technological sovereignty is not an easy task for the Russian economy, which correlates with intensification of innovation activity in all spheres of national economy. One of the major factors to ensure necessary dynamics in transforming the domestic economy is the availability of free exchange of innovative technologies among subjects of various sectors in the economy provided by the conception of open innovations. Current models of innovation systems, with prevailing state financing of R&D, are not effective enough, which creates prerequisites for involving credit organizations into this area in order to intensify R&D, especially in the areas essential for practical activities. The authors propose developing and adapting the open innovation model in relation to the participation of credit institutions. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the role of credit institutions as an ecosystem actor in the open innovation model. The research methodology is based on the analysis of theoretical and practical works on open innovation theory in order to apply lending secured by the results of intellectual activity. The major results of the study are based on (i) considering the open innovation model to properly include credit institutions as an ecosystem actor, (ii) proposing possible solutions regarding the cooperation of actors in innovation processes, and (iii) selecting innovative projects for possible secured lending which will accelerate the processes of innovative development. The obtained results can be used for further development of this area and in practice of the subjects of innovation activity.

Ensuring national security is the basis for sustainable socio-economic development. This study aims to show the critical shortcomings of the current national security system and to reconfigure the mechanisms for building and regulating both individual types of security and the national security of the Russian Federation at large. The methodological basis of the study is scientific and regulatory documents on ensuring security, sustainable development. The main scientific tools of the work are: economic and systemic types of analysis, including conceptual content analysis and information modeling. The study clearly shows that ensuring national and individual types of security requires systemic consideration, taking into account the multidimensional nature of emerging relationships and its implications. National security is defined as a state of protection from internal and external threats, in which all types of security are systemically provided and the stability of its indicators is maintained. The author proposes a multidimensional discrete model of national security, characterized by the typology of protected objects, the level of consideration, the type of security provided, and the system of regulatory tools. The structuring of the selected components of the national security system has been carried out. To increase the reliability of security level assessment and better use of regulatory tools, additional parameters are proposed that affect the overall system for ensuring national security. The results obtained have a wide application for policymakers, research and educational organizations — all those involved in ensuring a particular type of security, including the development of regulatory documentation, scientific and educational publications.

The main purpose of the study is to identify whether there is a connection between different demographic values, as well as socio-demographic characteristics of social network VKontakte users. Based on a large data set of user comments of two types — parental and childfree groups, — the paper identifies the links between different types of demographic values — positive or negative attitudes towards parenthood, family creation, having children, attitude towards healthy lifestyle, as well as between values and socio-demographic characteristics such as gender, age, marital status. Drawing on a logit analysis, the authors construct socio-demographic profiles of so-called “pronatalists” (parental groups) and “anti-natalists” (childfree groups) in Russia and prove the correlation between different types of values. For example, positive attitudes towards parenthood, childbearing, and family creation (reproductive and family values) are associated with negative attitudes towards smoking and alcohol (positive vital values). The marital status is also associated with these positive values (which indirectly indicates a connection with matrimonial values). A connection was found both between different types of demographic values of the social network users of selected demographic groups, and a connection between the socio-demographic characteristics of users and their values. For example, women and older people (in some model specifications) are more prone to family values. Additionally, the study confirms the quality of the choice of demographic groups in social network by names and declared values— a connection is traced between belonging to pronatalist or antinatalist groups and value attitudes about life priorities (family or leisure and self-development).

To make the transition to a low-carbon economy and sustainable transport system, to solve environmental and climate problems, many countries are replacing traditional cars that run on petroleum fuel with electric cars. Unlike vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE), electric vehicles` emission from operation phase are practically zero, but this is not the case if we consider a full life cycle. In this paper, we briefly describe the electric vehicle market, examine the life-cycle emissions of electric cars and ICE cars, propose a methodological approach to the economic assessment of negative impact of emissions from road transport, carry out a comparative assessment of external costs of cars that run on traditional and alternative fuel. To achieve these goals, we use the methodology of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which allows to calculate country-specific and time-adjusted value of a statistical life, and consider the characteristics of Russia`s energy balance and automotive market. The results demonstrate that, in general, under Russian conditions, electric cars are more environmentally friendly and contribute less to climate change than cars with internal combustion engines. The external costs caused by life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of an electric car are lower than similar emissions from a traditional car by about 70 rubles per 100 km. The external costs caused by emissions of pollutants from the electric car operation phase are lower than external costs caused by emissions from an ICE car by approximately 20 rubles per 100 km.

Investment excitement and industrial scale of digital coins “production” cause concern of experts and researchers in the field of economics, ecology, energy, regulation and others. The purpose of the paper is to structure and improve the quality of the discourse around cryptocurrencies. The paper notes the heterogeneity of the phenomenon under consideration, presents a classification of cryptocurrency projects, considering their architectural and technical features, identifies the main interest groups in the industry, highlights structural alternatives for regulating crypto industry, identifies some socioeconomic effects that arise with the development of crypto industry. The results obtained and the directions for further research can be useful in developing economic theory and forming approaches to regulate the circulation of cryptocurrencies and activities in cryptocurrency industry.

At present many markets may be viewed as multisided with platforms where different groups of agents interact. However, many aspects of these markets are still not thoroughly studied, including the competition between platforms with the goal to increase user base. As noted in many theoretical works, due to the phenomenon of zero prices, non-price factors of competition play a leading role on such markets. Among others the importance of exclusive contracts is highlighted in scientific literature, but empirically their effect on the user base has not been fully estimated. In this study we examine video game market since its importance in global economy has increased in the recent decades. The effect of exclusivity on the total video game platforms’ sales and on the sales volumes of individual video games is empirically estimated. As an additional control variable, the age rating of video games is included, which was not considered in prior works. Drawing on the results of estimating econometric model, the author concludes that for platforms on the video game market it is advantageous to increase the share of exclusive contracts, but this relationship is characterized by diminishing returns to scale. On the other hand, for video game developers exclusive distribution on a particular platform results in lower overall sales. Based on these results it can be concluded that platforms can compete for exclusive contracts and in the process of negotiating for exclusivity a compensation from the platform should be provided to video game developers.

The research examines the estimation of structured products hidden costs on the Russian market. Hidden costs are calculated as a difference between the notional value of structured product and present value of all its components. The studies conducted on European structured products market prove that hidden costs decrease with expanding market and increasing number of issuers, but increase with growing sophistication of structured products. The sample consists of 174 structured products currently presented on the Russian market. There are capital protected notes with participation. The underlying assets are indexes, stocks, depositary receipts, stocks of funds or ETFs. We estimated the hidden costs of each of these products drawing on the methodology which divides invested capital into three parts: deposit that guarantees capital protection, call option to obtain a part of underlying asset growth and hidden costs. We argue that hidden costs by sample are higher than median hidden costs on European market. It could be explained by short period of Russian structured products market existence and low number of issuers. The results obtained could be used by regulators, structured products issuers, investors and all those interested in structured products

Economic instability forces governments to urgently support businesses and the public at the expense of budgetary imbalances. Such circumstances test flexibility of fiscal rules — restrictions on the main budget parameters. They are often suspended, the limit values of their indicators are adjusted, temporary concessions for their use are introduced. Both the introduction of such instrument and its sustainability over time depend primarily on the government and policymakers. At the same time world experience proves that budget restrictions supported by the authorities need a complementing system of adaptation and controlling conditions allowing for a better adaptation to economic challenges and following their original task — to ensure medium-term budget balance while maintaining a conditionally constant level of budget expenditures. The subject in the paper is the institutional conditions for fiscal rules’ functioning. The purpose of the study is to identify the institutional framework used to ensure proper performance of fiscal rules and assess its practical applicability in Russia. Using the methods of descriptive statistical and comparative analysis of international and Russian practice in applying fiscal rules, the authors identify and analyze the list of such institutional conditions as medium-term expenditure frameworks, fiscal councils, correction mechanisms, escape clauses. The results of the study consist in formulated required and sufficient institutional framework for effective fiscal rules. Due to the use of only mediumterm budget planning in Russia the remaining three may serve as a guideline for implementing budget restrictions during the current reform.

The traditionally applied approach to determine the boundaries of poverty and the middle class based predominantly on the criteria of income level overlooks a wide group of citizens related to low-income category. The paper examines multicriteria approaches in determining the boundaries of poverty and the middle class which cover social, economic and behavioral factors. As an essential criterion to classify population as a poor class the authors chose behavioral characteristics related to the possibility and propensity for long-term planning. Applied regression analysis confirms the significance of some households’ social and economic characteristics that increase the likelihood of their belonging to a certain population group, such as household size, age of the head of household, education level, professional activity, etc. Based on various methodological approaches, the analysis of the Russian society structure reveals its high polarization where the share of the poor fluctuates from 10% to a quarter of population and even more considering the parameters that determine the quality of life, behavior and self-identification. Drawing on multicriterial approach, the authors propose additional measures of support, which cover not only the poorest segments and large families, but also a significant cohort of low-income citizens, as well as measures that contribute to higher-income work and the increment of human wealth. The analysis concludes with cost assessment of suggested measures and the effect of their implementation on socio-economic development and welfare until 2030.

The field of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics) is one of the most promising in education. These professionals are employed in high-tech industries and creative industries that determine the future of the global economy. The article for the first time presents a detailed analysis of the development of this sphere based on original approaches, both in general in the Russian Federation and in the context of regions. In Russia more than half a million people are annually admitted to STEAM training courses for higher education programs. Contrary to the all-Russian trend of reducing the number of students, enrollment for these programs has been steadily growing. According to the latest data, about 36% of university graduates in Russia have a specialty within STEAM; for comparison: in South Korea, Singapore, and Germany this share is above 45%. The largest share of specialists is trained in the Tomsk region, St. Petersburg, and Moscow. At the same time, the number of STEAM graduates decreased in 41 Russian regions. In 2022, the risks for the STEAM industry in Russia have increased markedly: there is a migration outflow of the most qualified personnel, and domestic demand for them is declining. In general, for six months (from February to August), the total number of vacancies in the Russian labor market decreased by 9%, while STEM - by 23% (IT - by 32.5%). This may affect the long-term scientific and technological development of the country: our calculations show the importance of STEAM for creating start-ups, increasing publication and inventive activity. In conclusion the article proposes some measures on the development of STEAM as a tool for long-term development and a way to adapt the country to external shocks.

In this paper, the model of partial equilibrium of the export-oriented market has been developed. The research methodology based on the development of the duopoly model made it possible to significantly expand the analytical capabilities of the export-oriented market model. The new formulation takes into account the flows of imported products to the domestic market of the exporting country, which allows analyzing a wider range of possible scenarios. Model estimates showed that in a state close to equilibrium, it ensures the fulfillment of the following specific relationships: 1) the external supplies of the exporting country are positively related to their own production volumes. For the dependence of the external supplies of the exporting country on the volume of output in the global exporter, the conditions are specified under which it has a negative or positive relationship. In general, the nature of this relationship depends on the size of the exporting country's market, and in most cases this relationship is negative; 2) the import of the exporting country in equilibrium conditions positively depends on the output of the global exporter, solutions are found in which the dependence on the output of the exporting country can be both negative and positive; 3) the price of the domestic market of the exporting country is negatively related to the output of the global exporter, while its relationship with the production of the exporting country is negative in most cases. On the basis of the obtained model, a number of scenarios are analyzed in which the impact of supply and demand shocks on the export-oriented market is considered. In order to test the model, we considered a scenario associated with a drop in global production on the example of the barley market, which basically confirmed the adequacy of the model. The theoretical significance of the study lies in substantiating the nature of the relationships that arise in the sales markets of the exporting country, in particular, depending on the size of the exporter's sales market. The practical relevance of the model lies in its great scientific potential for solving problems related to assessing the impact of supply and demand shocks on the domestic market, with the development of measures to stabilize it.

Tightening climate policies in some countries brings about a need to toughen them in others. More stringent requirements for national producers of carbon–intensive products within one country, for example, in the form of increased coverage or level of domestic carbon price, stimulates partial replacement of domestic production with foreign analogs from the countries with relatively looser greenhouse gas emissions regulation. This phenomenon is referred to as “carbon leakage”. This paper systematizes practical and theoretical approaches to combat “carbon leakage” and compares these approaches in terms of possible implications for a longterm social and economic development of Russia. The authors examine exceptions to the general rules of emissions regulation for some vulnerable industries subjected to “carbon leakage”, implementation of cross-border carbon barriers in trade, formation of climate clubs of countries and the introduction of a global minimum carbon price. Specialization in producing and exporting carbon-intensive products leaves no opportunity for Russia to stay aside of the development of the global system of greenhouse gas emissions regulation. The findings show that introducing a global minimum price for carbon seems to be the best alternative to the formation of a climate club, which may be established if other countries importing fossil fuels and carbon-intensive products join the EU carbon border adjustment policy.

The article attempts to identify the most significant lessons that can be learned from the experience of Peter the Great transformations— one of the key developments in Russian history that determined the vector of the country's development for a long time. The author considers both positive and negative implications of Peter the Great's reforms, and concludes that the success of Peter I reforms was primarily due to the fact that their focus on the European model of development correlated with internal trends in Russian development at the turn of the 17th–18th centuries, and this is exactly what made Peter I transformations irreversible. Peter's successors, faced with serious financial and economic problems, were forced to make certain adjustments to his transformations, but retained all the main institutions he created. Thanks to Peter's transformations, Russia acquired the status of a great power, which was due to the country's integration into the system of international relations, the world economy and culture, without which the very status of a great power lost its meaning. Thanks to the reforms in economic sphere, the technological gap with the leading European countries was largely overcome, but the priority development of industries focused on military needs and based on the labor of serfs hindered the development of capitalist relations and contributed to the transformation of Russia into a raw material power. At the same time, the pace of economic development remained low, which resulted in a new lag in the next historical stage. Reforms in the social sphere, based on meeting fiscal needs of the state, hampered but could not stop the development of Russian society.

The reign of Peter the Great (1682–1725) is known not only for transforming Russia into a powerful empire but for a radical change in its economy and rapid industrial development. These changes were dictated by the Northern War with the Swedes and Peter's ideas onto how to manage the economy. The article examines two main aspects of the policy — in relation to trade and industry. For Russia’s merchants this era was a difficult time entailing their actual ruin. Huge taxes and various duties were imposed on merchants and townspeople in general with state active intervention in business, taking it away from entrepreneurs and introducing monopolies for purchase and sale of raw materials and goods. Only towards the end of Peter I reign the system of pressure on merchants weakened. Industry followed a different path: the state used all its means to develop manufacturing. Officials took special care of the sectors focused on military needs. The authorities launched a broad program of protectionism, they in every way assisted the organizers of production, with finance, benefits, protecting the enterprises from foreign competition. It resulted in greenhouse conditions for industrial development. A special issue was labor force at enterprises: the government developed the procedure of attaching local peasants to factories, allowing the owners of manufactories to buy out serfs. These measures contributed to the transformation of industry into a kind of serfdom. All this had an extremely negative impact on the formation of Russian capitalism and the future of Russia..