Articles

The paper considers short-term forecasting of household final consumption expenditures using the consumer confidence index in Russia. The article presents a comparative analysis of consumption forecasting approaches using a leading indicator in various countries. The author makes consumption nowcasts based on quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2021. Unlike most studies based on seasonally adjusted time series, the current study uses seasonally differentiated time series. To determine the predictive power of the index, the author builds several models which include in turn the consumer confidence index, index lags, and consumption lags. The quality comparison of different specifications with the root mean squared forecast error demonstrates that the inclusion of the consumer confidence index in the model increases the accuracy of both out-of-sample and in-sample forecasts. The conducted statistical tests confirm that the inclusion of a leading indicator in the model improves the quality of forecasts.

The article provides a comparative analysis of human theory within the framework of behavioral economics and modern Marxist political economy. Based on the systematized main items of these theories, the paper concludes that with all the fundamental differences, these directions reflect in different forms the objective phenomena of modern economics which require significant correction in prior notions of «homo economicus”. From the very beginning Marxist political economy would give a more complex picture with the diversity of goals and motives of human activity and behavior in different socio-economic systems. In recent decades behavioural economics has also taken these changes into account. Such corrections include, firstly, the interdisciplinary character of the study of a Man as an economic actor (behavioral economics stresses the importance of a dialogue with psychology and biology, Marxist political economy with social philosophy and sociology). Secondly, it is necessary to account not only for the irrational component of human behavior but also for the rational behavior’s orientation not only on market goals and values. Thirdly, taking into account the aggravation of global problems, both directions emphasize the need to add goals and values related to the development of human qualities, to the previous goals of economic activity (profit growth, GDP). At the same time the concept of «inclusive capitalism» is proposed within the «main trend» and at least deep reforms with concern to modern Marxism. The authors draw a conclusion concerning the possibility of advancing the strategy of eco-socio-cultural-oriented development based on the dialogue of the above-mentioned areas.

Initially political economy was non-Marxist but under the influence of ideology it has become Marxist; with rejection of official ideology of Marxism, it can and should again become non-Marxist. Marxism is an ideology/ policy that proclaims the inevitable death of capitalism and its replacement with socialism. Ideology forced political economy to abandon the subject — «the wealth of nations» (Smith) which was transformed into «social relations developing in the process of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods, and economic laws governing their development in socio-economic formations historically replacing each other». Marxian economics was identified with the ideology of Marxism. The three constituent parts of Marxism have lost their relevance. The materialistic foundation of Marxism rested on three discoveries (the cell, energy conservation, and Darwinism). A new social organism was believed to have been born from a cell that existed in an old organism; the birth of a new one means the death of the old one. The history of all societies was represented by the history of the struggle between the exploiting and exploited classes, the result of which was a progressive change of formations. The discoveries of the XIX century were either refuted by modern natural science (cell theory), or significantly modernized (synthetic theory of evolution). The theory of class exploitation as a deduction from the product of labor was refuted by Marx. Rejection of Marxism does not mean rejection of the materialist understanding of history, but an understanding based on modern materialism. The subject of political economy in broad sense is various modes of life reproduction (analogue of a species) and their modification (population). The history of all previous societies was the history of struggle, not classes, but of modes of production of life. The subject of the non-Marxist political economy of capitalism is the relationship of the reproduction of the life of three large classes (capitalists, hired workers, landowners). The method is an analogue of the method for constructing genomes of biological species. Non-Marxist political economy and economics have a common subject and form two components of a new academic discipline «applied political economy», in which the descriptive method of economics is complemented by an explicative one.

In recent years, scientific periodical literature faces an increased interest to the problem of science-metric assessment of the efficiency of domestic scientists-economists. At the same time, scientific community is concerned with the increased level of labor intensity and the duration of the publication process in national journals on economics. The article aims to specify science-metric effectiveness as a criterion for the efficiency of scientific personnel. The authors attempt to solve the following tasks: to assess the current state of scientific publications in the field of economics, including the results of the research conducted by the authors; to provide a number of practical measures to improve the publishing process. The article systematizes the key modern trends in the publication process in scientific economic journals. It shows that leading foreign economic journals are characterized by an increase in publication time, an increase in requirements for manuscripts, and an increase in the influence of reviewers on the content of articles submitted. Based on the authors’ research among the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, the study identifies the qualitative features in scientific publications process and confirms the hypothesis that the conditions for publications in the leading scientific journals of Russia have become more complex in recent years, the publication time has increased and the requirements for them on the part of Russian publishers have increased. The authors of the study note the existing gap between the publications of Russian researchers in domestic and foreign scientific journals in the field of economics. The article provides recommendations to improve the publication process in economic journals and reduce transaction costs for the authors.

The work addresses an urgent scientific task of increasing the efficiency of public procurement management in the context of information asymmetry via the use of modern mechanisms and digital technologies. The subject of the work was formed by the study of the negative effects of information asymmetry on the stakeholders at the stage of selecting a supplier, as well as qualitative aspects of planning, budgeting and preparation of purchases by government customers. The theoretical basis is the theory of markets with asymmetric information, the theory of contracts, as well as the theory and practice of the process approach to management regarded in many significant world economic studies. The relevance of the work is justified by the expansion in the state sector, where procurement efficiency becomes of particular importance, and the constant displacement of high-quality goods, works and services from the market and their replacement with low-quality ones (the phenomenon of negative selection) becomes an obvious risk. In the light of the tasks facing the state, the author views the demand for development of a conceptual model and methodology for using digital mechanisms and modern information technologies both for microeconomic regulation and assistance to quality suppliers, and for increasing the efficiency of government bodies, state corporations, companies and enterprises

Social policy includes such components as health care, education, physical activity, and sports, where the state acts not only as a financier, but also as a provider of services. Studying the determinants of physical activity makes it possible to identify the set of social policy measures aimed at the formation of a healthy lifestyle. Among the determinants of physical activity, there are socioeconomic characteristics of an individual, such as age, gender, health status, income level, marital and employment status. There is also an individual trend for a healthy lifestyle, or to refuse it, which was formed because of the influence of the environment, education, and personal beliefs. The purpose of this article is to examine the influence of individual time preferences on physical activity. Physical activity is monitored using physical exercises and walking indicators. The proxy for individual time preferences is individual discount rate. This rate is determined using a hypothetical money experiment. Individuals with a higher individual discount rate demonstrate impatience in obtaining utility from consumption. They are not ready to take health-improving actions. The study is carried out on the data of a special survey of the Levada Center dedicated to a healthy lifestyle of the Russian population in 2017. The main hypothesis is tested by estimating the system of binary equations. Individuals with higher individual discount rate are less likely to engage in physical exercises for health purposes. The findings provide additional information for the development of public policy measures aimed at creating healthy lifestyle

The article examines the features of the behavioral and business model of joint consumption and its impact on the market. The subject of the study is the transformation of commoditymonetary relations occurring in the sharing economy. Global expansion of joint consumption in the world and its growing popularity in Russia, alongside the lack of relevant studies in Russian literature determines the relevance of the work. In order to study economic nature and market foundations of sharing economy, the authors apply an interdisciplinary approach as well as general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis and modeling. To assess the viability of this model in the face of new challenges, methods of statistical data analysis and expert assessments are used. The authors argue that the basis of sharing economy is a rationalistic model of individual’s behavior who refuses to own excess property in favor of temporary access to the good to save resources and maximize utility. The basic principles of sharing economy (rationality, efficiency, profitability, urgency and trust), as well as specific interaction of its participants, have an impact on commodity-monetary relations, leading to the transformation of market fundamentals: a change in private property paradigm, a shift in subjective foundations of the market and in the standard exchange scheme, a partial removal of market «failures». Recent challenges provide a real test of sharing economy, and demonstrate high adaptive abilities, which allows us to look positively at the future of a new consumption model and opens interesting areas for further research

The article examines the role of the Institution of Special Economic Zones for sustainable development of a country or region proceeding from new institutional theory and stakeholders approach. Accelerating development requires the conditions which might affect the quality of the Institution of Special Economic Zones entailed by the diffusion of basic rules and underlying mechanism between the levels of the institution. The author identifies and specifies the main stakeholders of macro-, meso-, micro-levels of the Institution of Special Economic Zones on the example of Russian Far East. Positive economic analysis makes it possible to identify most significant stakeholders and consider them according to the effect obtained. The paper highlights the features and expectations (interests) and the means to achieve them by stakeholders and the Institution of Special Economic Zones. Harmonization and balancing of their interests is subordinate to creating the conditions for increasing socio-economic effects and social wellbeing in the process of economic activity. The Institution of Special Economic Zones has such inclusive signs as the presence of centralized state power and an object for the formation of high-tech knowledge-intensive sectors in regional economy, and a good dynamic in the number of residents. All these create a turning point for the transition to a sustainable level of development, where the Institution of Special Economic Zones matters. The methodology for assessing its effectiveness becomes of great importance. It should be theoretically substantiated and scientifically and grounded to allow a comprehensive assessment of the Institution of Special Economic Zones influence on accelerating socio-economic development and creating comfortable conditions for the population of the Far East. The findings are of theoretical and empirical value and may be applied to design the policies of sustainable regional development.

In this paper we study the distribution of creative industries in the regions of the Russian Federation, build models of correlation between indicators of creative industries development among themselves, as well as models of correlation between indicators of creative industries development and socio-economic indicators characterizing the development of the regions of Russia. We argue that the distribution of creative industries in Russia’s regions is quite uneven, with a small number of leading regions having the largest number of creative enterprises that provide the largest contribution of creative activities, while in other regions the creative industries are less developed. We present the hypothesis explaining this specific distribution and construct the typology of the regions drawing on the level of creative industries development. To assess the influence of different factors on the degree of development of creative industries we built a number of models that allow to draw conclusions concerning the decisions to be taken at regional and federal levels to provide the conditions for the development of creative industries in Russia’s regions.

International tourism, with its positive effect on socio-economic development of entire regions and individual countries, plays a crucial role for Russia’s economic growth. The paper analyses the interregional differentiation in the development of international tourism in the Russian Federation. The study is based on the official data from the Federal State Statistics Service. Median indicators are calculated. Drawing on the methods of economic analysis, induction, deduction, comparison and generalization, the study reveals a significant disproportion of inbound and outbound tourist international flows in Russia in 2016–2019, with greater part of Russian regions being the donors of tourists for foreign destinations. The analysis of inbound and outbound international tourist flows allowed us to identify six typological groups of Russian regions. The results obtained make it possible to form a comprehensive outlook of the development of international tourism in Russia. Practical application of the proposed approach gives an opportunity to expand possible options for management decisions, acting as a tool of regional economic policy in the sphere of tourism.

This study develops an algorithm that allows one to assess the creditworthiness of a borrower — an agricultural enterprise. It incorporates a scoring model and coefficients’ standard values included in the model. The industry model is based on panel data from 99 companies, 39 of which went bankrupt between 2011 and 2020. The regulatory framework is compiled on the basis of the analysis of the most resilient enterprises in the industry, as well as bankrupts. To analyze the creditworthiness of enterprises, the authors analyzed 11 indicators used by JSC Rosselkhozbank. Using correlation analysis and other econometric tests, 5 optimal coefficients were selected out of 11 and a scoring model was built. The overall accuracy of the credit rating was high and amounted to 86.1%. The scoring model verified correctly 85% of non-bankrupt companies and 87.2% of bankrupts.

The paper considers prerequisites and consequences analysis of the relations in the heat supply field liberalization process of taking place in the Russian Federation. The article is dedicated to theoretical and practical background for liberalization, which determine the possibility and feasibility of a radical change in the system of relations between participants in the heat energy markets. The author considered the forms of using competition mechanisms in heat markets: competition between centralized and decentralized heat supply, competition between heat producers, competition for admission to market entry, quasi-competition based on incentive regulation. The article examines Russian instruments for liberalizing heat energy markets. The author identified the features of the new (target) model of the heat energy market formation and changes in the spheres of responsibility of its individual subjects, including the strengthening of the institution of unified heat supply organizations. Separately, the author assessed the price (tariff) consequences of the transition to pricing for thermal energy using the “no more expensive than alternative sources of heat” method. This method provides for setting a contractual price for heat energy not higher than a ceiling level that the regulator approves based on the cost of heat supply from an “alternative” heat source (boiler house). The author investigated changes in prices (tariffs) for heat energy for consumers in municipalities pioneering the transition to price zones of heat supply. The article reveals that the establishment of a tariff by the “alternative boiler house” method did not effect to a sharp rise in prices (tariffs) for consumers. This is based on the application of measures provided for by legislation. In conclusion, the author made recommendations on further expanding the composition of price zones for heat supply.

The choice of manufacturing organization form and contracting method on the industrial markets requires evaluation of market volatility, including identification of the risks from the side of adjacent markets. The study aims at determining the ways synthetic rubber market participants adjust to imbalances in supply and demand. The analysis of consumer properties of synthetic and natural rubbers in the context of their industrial consumption allows us to argue that these types of rubber turn out to be both complements and substitutes at the same time. What is more, some of them may belong to the same market within the product boundaries (in terms of antitrust legislation). We use foreign trade customs statistics and historical production and consumption data to identify the sources of market imbalances such as: the gap between synthetic rubber production cost and the price of natural rubber; economic bubbles caused by the fluctuations in supply and the price of natural rubber; volatility in the demand for rubber from its main consumers — tire factories. We then turn to the possible risk mitigation mechanisms that may help market participants to cope with the imbalances: formula pricing, vertical integration and horizontal differentiation. The implementation of these mechanisms in practice is illustrated through cases of Russian companies: PJSC Nizhnekamskneftekhim, PJSC TATNEFT and SIBUR. We conclude with the recommendations on tools for synthetic rubber production development.