Andrey E. Shastitko

The choice of manufacturing organization form and contracting method on the industrial markets requires evaluation of market volatility, including identification of the risks from the side of adjacent markets. The study aims at determining the ways synthetic rubber market participants adjust to imbalances in supply and demand. The analysis of consumer properties of synthetic and natural rubbers in the context of their industrial consumption allows us to argue that these types of rubber turn out to be both complements and substitutes at the same time. What is more, some of them may belong to the same market within the product boundaries (in terms of antitrust legislation). We use foreign trade customs statistics and historical production and consumption data to identify the sources of market imbalances such as: the gap between synthetic rubber production cost and the price of natural rubber; economic bubbles caused by the fluctuations in supply and the price of natural rubber; volatility in the demand for rubber from its main consumers — tire factories. We then turn to the possible risk mitigation mechanisms that may help market participants to cope with the imbalances: formula pricing, vertical integration and horizontal differentiation. The implementation of these mechanisms in practice is illustrated through cases of Russian companies: PJSC Nizhnekamskneftekhim, PJSC TATNEFT and SIBUR. We conclude with the recommendations on tools for synthetic rubber production development.

Under sanctions, at the state level (in particular via the Russian antimonopoly authority) the idea of the need to prioritize supply to the domestic market is being promoted as an imperative for Russian manufacturers. The reverse side of the prioritization of the domestic market is the refusal to link prices under domestic contracts to foreign price indicators and exchange rates. The requirement to prioritize the internal market is as simple and obvious in concept as it is difficult to administer. We assess the design of the norm and possible scenarios for its application in terms of effects both for Russian business entities and for public welfare in general. We propose options for fine-tuning in terms of the application of this norm. We show that the preferred methods for analyzing the satisfaction of domestic demand are economic and statistical methods, as opposed to survey methods, which are associated with high risks of strategic behavior on the part of consumers. Additionally, we outline the main risks associated with the administration of the priority of meeting domestic demand through antimonopoly regulation. Among these risks, the most important are the risk of involvement of the antimonopoly authority in the resolution of economic disputes (which contradicts not only the essence of antimonopoly policy, but also the existing regulatory documents), as well as the risk of side effects that cannot be systematically taken into account and adjusted for in conditions where the prioritization domestic demand is provided not by methods of economic regulation, but by antitrust measures.

The main characteristics of methodological individualism as an approach used in economics to the study of social phenomena are revealed and the associated with it way of presenting accumulated knowledge. The authors show how methodological individualism is positioned in economics where Lakatos' research programs compete with each other. The study examines possible limitations in applying methodological individualism to relations between people mediated by language as a means of communication, including in the light of socialization processes, as well as in the light of differences in the research process and the way of presenting its outcomes. The authors show that with the spread of technologies based on artificial intelligence, the question of whether self-learning algorithms successfully passing the Turing test should be considered as a challenge for applying the traditional understanding of methodological individualism in future economic research. Methodological individualism is one of the important issues in the modern methodology of economics, in the light of which the paper discusses various aspects of the relationship between methodological holism and individualism.