Moscow University Bulletin. Economics. 2022. 2.

Initially political economy was non-Marxist but under the influence of ideology it has become Marxist; with rejection of official ideology of Marxism, it can and should again become non-Marxist. Marxism is an ideology/ policy that proclaims the inevitable death of capitalism and its replacement with socialism. Ideology forced political economy to abandon the subject — «the wealth of nations» (Smith) which was transformed into «social relations developing in the process of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of material goods, and economic laws governing their development in socio-economic formations historically replacing each other». Marxian economics was identified with the ideology of Marxism. The three constituent parts of Marxism have lost their relevance. The materialistic foundation of Marxism rested on three discoveries (the cell, energy conservation, and Darwinism). A new social organism was believed to have been born from a cell that existed in an old organism; the birth of a new one means the death of the old one. The history of all societies was represented by the history of the struggle between the exploiting and exploited classes, the result of which was a progressive change of formations. The discoveries of the XIX century were either refuted by modern natural science (cell theory), or significantly modernized (synthetic theory of evolution). The theory of class exploitation as a deduction from the product of labor was refuted by Marx. Rejection of Marxism does not mean rejection of the materialist understanding of history, but an understanding based on modern materialism. The subject of political economy in broad sense is various modes of life reproduction (analogue of a species) and their modification (population). The history of all previous societies was the history of struggle, not classes, but of modes of production of life. The subject of the non-Marxist political economy of capitalism is the relationship of the reproduction of the life of three large classes (capitalists, hired workers, landowners). The method is an analogue of the method for constructing genomes of biological species. Non-Marxist political economy and economics have a common subject and form two components of a new academic discipline «applied political economy», in which the descriptive method of economics is complemented by an explicative one.

The article provides a comparative analysis of human theory within the framework of behavioral economics and modern Marxist political economy. Based on the systematized main items of these theories, the paper concludes that with all the fundamental differences, these directions reflect in different forms the objective phenomena of modern economics which require significant correction in prior notions of «homo economicus”. From the very beginning Marxist political economy would give a more complex picture with the diversity of goals and motives of human activity and behavior in different socio-economic systems. In recent decades behavioural economics has also taken these changes into account. Such corrections include, firstly, the interdisciplinary character of the study of a Man as an economic actor (behavioral economics stresses the importance of a dialogue with psychology and biology, Marxist political economy with social philosophy and sociology). Secondly, it is necessary to account not only for the irrational component of human behavior but also for the rational behavior’s orientation not only on market goals and values. Thirdly, taking into account the aggravation of global problems, both directions emphasize the need to add goals and values related to the development of human qualities, to the previous goals of economic activity (profit growth, GDP). At the same time the concept of «inclusive capitalism» is proposed within the «main trend» and at least deep reforms with concern to modern Marxism. The authors draw a conclusion concerning the possibility of advancing the strategy of eco-socio-cultural-oriented development based on the dialogue of the above-mentioned areas.

The paper considers short-term forecasting of household final consumption expenditures using the consumer confidence index in Russia. The article presents a comparative analysis of consumption forecasting approaches using a leading indicator in various countries. The author makes consumption nowcasts based on quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2021. Unlike most studies based on seasonally adjusted time series, the current study uses seasonally differentiated time series. To determine the predictive power of the index, the author builds several models which include in turn the consumer confidence index, index lags, and consumption lags. The quality comparison of different specifications with the root mean squared forecast error demonstrates that the inclusion of the consumer confidence index in the model increases the accuracy of both out-of-sample and in-sample forecasts. The conducted statistical tests confirm that the inclusion of a leading indicator in the model improves the quality of forecasts.

Modern social networks are becoming a significant factor in stock market pricing because the information they generate expands the aggregate news background that determines stock prices according to currently prevailing efficient market theory. The news generated in the electronic media affect all the spheres forming supply and demand not only for manufactured goods but also through them for the prices of their manufacturers’ stocks. Normally, the relationship between the production of goods and the share price of its manufacturer is traced through economic indicators of profit, size of dividends, etc. Social information does not have a direct economic content. However, according to efficient market theory this kind of information should influence the share price. The article proves the influence of a trendsetter photo wearing certain brand clothes on the stock quotes of the company that owns this brand. The event analysis method reveals a short-term increase in company's share market price after the publication of a trend-setting blogger photos on Instagram, especially when it comes to a luxury brand. At the same time, the trend-setter profession and gender do not affect the abnormal rate of stock return resulted from the publication of his photograph. It proves a relative isolation of the “trend setter” itself in comparison with the personal characteristics of a blogger and turns this title into a specific independent factor in stock pricing.

This article provides the investment analysis, with the portfolio method being one of the frontmost instruments. The traditional portfolio theory implies that its essential criteria such as expected return and risk rate for all considered financial instruments are estimated from the historical data of equal length and are invariant throughout the usage period of the model. The authors suggest the approach which is a development of the Markowitz model. The point being, to estimate the expected return and the risk rate for each financial instrument in focus, an effective (own) learning sample is determined. The extremum seeking for the target function is performed through the method of full enumeration (cycle optimization) which provides the global extremum of the optimization criterion with restriction to the maximum permissible risk level. The sample size is tried upon two quality criteria considering accuracy of forecasts, namely: 1) the minimum condition of the sum of squared deviations of the projected values for the expected return, real values, 2) the maximization of the predicted forecasts when the investor expectations are met, with the minimal results when the real return appeared lower than the predicted one. The selection of the learning sample optimal length is performed on the principle of sliding verification of independent material. The described procedure is tested on realistic examples: the US stock market return forecast and staple crop yield gain forecast in the Russian Federation. The suggested algorithm underlying the synthesis of extensively diversified portfolios improves e investment problem solving effectiveness with contribution of considerations of both the markets in focus and the suitable financial instruments. .

The article presents an overview of the main available methodological approaches to implement the procedure of a quantitative assessment of workforce’s occupational risk in companies. The research methodology is based on the analysis of recent scientific publications and the investigation of methods and tools used in occupational risk assessment. In this study, the authors identify the advantages and disadvantages of using each methodology considered, assess the feasibility of the methods applied in activities aimed at improving the working conditions, industrial traumatism and occupational diseases reduction. The study proves that existing techniques based on rating-interval evaluating systems and matrix methods have significant limitations including infeasibility of application for the development of the list of activities to reduce occupational risk and a low level of evidence of the indicators and the assessment criteria applied. The analysis concludes with the requirements for the methodological approach to a quantitative occupational risk assessment.

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the significance of contemporary economic science for training public servants for government bodies and managers for business. At present, prevailing theories are being revised, novel concepts and interpretations come into being, and governmental institutions undergo noticeable changes, trying to respond to emerging challenges, i.e. New Industrial Revolution, Energy Transition and Climate Change. With this purpose in mind, the authors offered three methodological approaches — metrics, political economy, narrative, all of which allow to study novel problems from different angles. The review of 1006 articles in 31 Russian economic journals for the period of 2010– 2021 upon three above-mentioned issues has shown, that, firstly, a greater part of publications refers to manufacturing development, secondly, metric (42%) and political economy (51%) approaches prevail in the research of all these issues. However, in the situation of uncertainty the prognostic value of economic modelling is decreasing, contradictions between political economy elaborations are growing up, and narrative approach is actually demanded for alternative interpretations of variable, frequently competitive, ideas and concepts concerning industrial transformation, energy transition and climate change. These three approaches correlate with the curricula of Russian and foreign universities in order to identify the promising fields to upgrade economic education of public servants in Russia. The authors conclude that there is a disparity between trends in economic research and modes in training public servants. Currently in higher education the teaching of economics rests on metric approach, but economic sciences also demand qualitative methods of research. Humanitarian dimension in economic education is indispensable since it helps to form abstract reasoning skills, important for the new generation of public servants capable of solving intricate and ambiguous problems .

The article attempts to highlight the socio-psychological portrait of a Russian worker in creative sphere. The relevance of the research is determined by the contradiction between the desire to develop the creative class and the lack of a clear understanding of the essence of this social group. The methodological basis of the research includes both classic works by R. Florida and modern scientific publications on the study of the creative class by Russian and foreign authors. The analysis of theoretical studies shows the impossibility to establish a clear professional affiliation due to both terminological uncertainty and the rapid digitalization of society during the pandemic years, which led to a change in the position of the creative class and actualized the need to study it. The empirical basis is formed by the data from the online questionnaire survey carried out among the participants of the project of the Agency of Strategic Initiatives (rurban.space) to search and unite representatives of the creative class within the framework of the development of urban space models. The article attempts to outline the peculiarities of the formation of the Russian creative class. The results allow us to describe the portrait of a creative worker as a member of a social group that exists within the framework of traditional socio-economic institutions. The respondents self-identify themselves as representatives of the lower and middle classes, gravitating towards full-time employment within urban agglomerations. When selecting the professional qualities inherent in a creative worker, respondents gave preference to «creativity» and «communicativeness,» completely excluding «tolerance,» which is considered mandatory in Western culture. The data obtained in this study allowed us to rethink the established stereotypes and simplifying heuristics about the nature of creative work and the socioeconomic portrait of a creative worker.

The article presents the methodology of integral assessment of Russian regions economic development. Currently, there is a significant number of methods to assess the state of country’s economy and individual regions, including Russia. However, they are often poorly formalized or difficult to implement. The authors offer the methodology to assess the economic development of Russia’s regions using the integral index which minimizes the number of the indicators used. The study applies objective indicators of official statistics which most fully and reliably reflect the essence of regional economic development in Russia such as: gross regional product, the cost of fixed assets adjusted for their depreciation, investments in fixed assets — all of them per capita. The methodology makes it possible to provide an annual assessment of Russian regions economic development to determine the specifics of regional policy.

The increase in life expectancy, both in the world and in Russia, has led to an increase in the burden on the state budget as a whole and on pension systems, in particular. Since for most pensioners the state social system, in general, and the pension one, in particular, is the main source of well-being, this can provoke its decline.

As follows from the study, along with demography (an increase in the number of pensioners compared to the population of working age) and the economy (phase of the cycle), the territory of residence is also a factor affecting pension welfare.

The study is limited in scope: only material well-being, only old-age pensions, 8 federal districts of the Russian Federation, for the period of 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020.

The Global Pension Index, the World Social Protection Report, other international documents, as well as the Comprehensive Monitoring of the Living Conditions of the Population has provided key indicators to assess pension well-being, including: 2 «monetary» (the ratio of the intended pension and the subsistence minimum) and 7 «non-monetary» ones that assess the state of housing conditions (general: the proportion of households of pensioners who are not constrained by housing; the size of the total area per member of the household; households estimate pensioners in the state of the living quarters occupied by them as «satisfactory» and the level of security of the living quarters of pensioners: centralized water supply, hot water supply, network gas and central heating).

Evaluation of the mini / max method of these indicators empirically proves the hypothesis that the level of well-being of pensioners living in various federal districts of Russia is significantly different. Thus, it is empirically proven that the territory of residence is a factor of pension well-being, which requires the abandonment of regional ties in calculating the state pension.

The article substantiates the recommendations to improving the publication process in economic journals and reducing transaction costs for authors of scientific publications.

This is the first publication in a series of the three papers that present the research findings of the diagnostic project on the quality of Bachelors’ final papers initiated by the Faculty of Economics Pedagogical committee in 2021. We present the findings of academic quality analysis and the typology of the main formats of Bachelors’ final papers. The research is based on a methodology that is specially developed along the lines of positive economics approach. Its application allows us to demonstrate the qualitative features of the body of final papers prepared by our graduates which include inter alia quality of literature review, research statement, tools of analysis and interpretation of findings. We offer the steps for further strengthening the analytical quality of final papers, including early submission of research hypothesis, elective courses on the methods of academic research and research seminars for undergraduates. We also present a typology of formats for final papers covering Economics and Management streams of study. Based on our positive analysis, we have identified six primary formats of Bachelors’ final papers, which can be combined into three more general categories: academic, project and research, and applied project formats. A comparative analysis of formats in economics and management papers confirms the applicability of common criteria for evaluating and grading the papers, alongside common guidelines for final paper preparation. The study proves the viability of diverse analytical methods while preparing final papers in both streams of study.